In their 2015 annual letter, Bill and Melinda Gates describe the way that capitalism and technology will transform the lives of the poor. They also describe a new project that will enlist millions around the world as “Global Citizens” in support of their agenda. The overriding message that the couple would like to emphasize is one of hope. Tom Paulson wrote about the inside discussion that the Gates Foundation had with friendly media, and here is what he found out was driving the message:

“Our research has shown that people see, or at least remember, the stories that highlight waste and ineffectiveness in foreign aid more than they do the positive stories,” saidTom Scott, director of global brand and innovation at the foundation. “It’s harder to break through with the stories of success so that’s our emphasis.”

And that emphasis comes through loud and clear in this year’s letter.

Although Gates acknowledged just a month ago that the Gates Foundation’s emphasis on technological solutions to the problems of the developing world had not yielded the breakthroughs he had hoped, technology remains central to the foundation’s vision.

Genetically modified seeds, chemical fertilizers and improved roads will transform agriculture in Africa, Gates suggests. Serious questions have been raised about the wisdom of this approach, as replacing heritage seeds with GM ones locks farmers into dependent relationships with suppliers like Monsanto – which is partly owned by the Gates Foundation.

According to this year’s letter, smartphones will allow those without access to schools to learn online. This section is entitled “Better software will revolutionize learning.”

Mobile phones will also allow the poor to borrow money, and the Gates explain,

Not having access to a range of cheap and easy financial services makes it much more difficult to be poor.

But in the next 15 years, digital banking will give the poor more control over their assets and help them transform their lives.

The key to this will be mobile phones.

When I investigated the research on micro-credit, I find that there are some small benefits, but it has not been transformative.

The Annual Letter carries a carefully crafted message, not subject to slips of the tongue. In off the cuff conversations, Gates is a bit less optimistic. In an interview with the American Enterprise Institute last year, Gates said this:

Well, technology in general will make capital more attractive than labor over time. Software substitution, you know, whether it’s for drivers or waiters or nurses… It’s progressing. And that’s going to force us to rethink how these tax structures work in order to maximize employment, you know, given that, you know, capitalism in general, over time, will create more inequality and technology, over time, will reduce demand for jobs particularly at the lower end of the skill set. And so, you know, we have to adjust, and these things are coming fast. Twenty years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower, and I don’t think people have that in their mental model.

So he has in his mental model a future where capitalism will make inequality greater, and technology will make jobs fewer – but nonetheless, manages to project a brighter future for the poor through the promotion of both capitalism and technology in his annual letter. Does he truly believe this? Or is this being shaped by what their polling shows about people needing a positive message?

Regarding education, Gates was also a bit less optimistic last year when speaking off the cuff. When Gates was interviewed last year in Los Alamos, he was asked about progress in education, and, said:

New technology to engage students holds some promise, but Gates says it tends to only benefit those who are motivated. “And the one thing we have a lot of in the United States is unmotivated students,” Gates said.

The last section of the letter suggests we may see a bit more of Gates Foundation activism on the ground, at a “grassroots” level. The letter calls for “Global Citizens,” sort of an army of potential activists, who supply their email addresses to a Gates-funded outfit that will then seek to activate them around various issues – kind of like Move-on.org.

An article in Forbes by Randall Lane calls this “the most powerful tool in the history of social activism,” which could be a bit over the top. But it will be a force to be reckoned with.

Gates says the database number will be in the “millions” and he’s not messing around – Gates Foundation executives have been telling non-profits that the number will far exceed 10 million by this summer.

Lane suggests,

The results could herald the Moneyball era of activism, with the database sortable by interest area, region or any number of fields. Says Gates: “The dream is to have people in the big list declare, ‘OK, I’m particularly interested in the environment.’ And then we go to Al Gore’s people or whatever, and say, “OK those people, you figure out what messages go to them.” If they say health, OK we’re enough of a fair broker in the health game that we can come up with a finite set of messages that would include all the health people, if it’s hunger, if it’s education, and how you partition that out the right way. I think it’s very doable. I’m quite optimistic.”

We can imagine the education equivalent to “Al Gore’s people.”

Michelle Rhee’s organization StudentsFirst was launched a few years ago with similar fanfare, forecasting the many millions of dollars and people she was going to enlist on the side of corporate reform. But when the organization tried to get anyone to show up in person, somehow the many on their email list failed to translate into any real grassroots action.

This reminds me of the statement made to a group of teachers a couple of years ago by a Gates Foundation staffer:

We’re trying to start a movement. A movement started by you. A movement you’re leading.

Social movements of people have rarely been started from above by billionaires picking and choosing the cause and the goals. In this day and age, most people have a well-developed nose that sniffs out the interests at work behind the scenes. And fortunately, we have a growing authentic movement focused on education, started not by the Gates Foundation, but by teachers, parents and students across the country. We will be meeting in April in Chicago – come and see what a genuine grassroots movement is all about.

What do you think? Will mobile phones and GMOs have a significant effect on poverty? Will “Global Citizens” lend support to initiatives aligned with Gates Foundation goals?